FX Report: 7th - 10th April 2025
Buy Side Target
1.3350
Sell Side Target
1.2720
Current Price
1.2835
Our mid-term target of 1.3210 was close to being reached, missed by 3pips. We had a heavy turn around in price suggesting prices above 1.3000 were not sustainable, we can expect price to reach our level of 1.2720 to find value to allow decisive price action. As we have finally broken our range we understand price is currently imbalanced suggesting value finding as its core goal. We determine our next areas of value to be between 1.2620-1.2720 on the downside and 1.3210-1.3350 on the upside. Being patient and knowing where to execute would provide the greatest returns in such volatile conditions, as highlighted 3 weeks ago, such volatility is expected due to uncertain market conditions and regular changes in political stances as seen in the US markets.
UK Economic Indicators
- GDP Growth: UK GDP rose by 0.5% in February, surpassing expectations and indicating resilience in sectors like services and manufacturing.
- Inflation: The UK's inflation rate remained steady at 2.6% for eight consecutive months, suggesting stable price pressures .
- Retail Sales: Retail sales data for March, released on April 11, showed a 0.3% month-over-month increase, signalling consumer spending stability .
- Monetary Policy Outlook: The Bank of England (BoE) faces challenges with robust wage growth and inflation, leading to expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut in May, with potential for further easing later in the year.
U.S. Economic Developments
- Inflation and Federal Reserve Policy: U.S. inflation concerns persisted, with the Federal Reserve maintaining a cautious approach to rate cuts. The market anticipated a modest 35 basis points in cuts for 2025, with the first expected in July.
- Trade Tariffs: President Trump's imposition of a 10% universal tariff and duties up to 145% on Chinese imports introduced global trade uncertainties, affecting market sentiment and the U.S. dollar.
Last FX Report: 1st - 3rd April 2025
Buy Side Target
1.3210
Sell Side Target
1.2720
Current Price
1.2900
Market Outcome
Indecisive
We saw the market provide cheap prices for buys and sells last week, with a breakout to the topside for anyone who decided to position themselves according to any fundamentals, such as weakening dollars due to indecision and fear in the markets.
Our traders continued to capitalise on both buy and sell opportunities from the market and positioned themselves according to both technical and fundamental trends and suggestions using our proprietary tools and indicators.
*Contracts for difference (CFDs) are complicated financial contracts based on leverage, which can possibly result in huge fluctuations in profits or losses. Therefore, it is essential to study and understand CFDs thoroughly before embarking on investment. You should at the same time stay conscious and ready yourself for the potential risk of losing a part or your whole capital. This outlook is non-financial advice, you should consult with your personal financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
How we traded this outlook:
