1. Economic Data Releases (UK & US)

UK Economic Data:

• UK Inflation (CPI) & Retail Sales: UK inflation figures for March (released in mid-April) could provide insight into the Bank of England's (BoE) future policy stance. If inflation remains high, it may reinforce expectations of a more hawkish BoE, which could support the GBP.

• Labour Market Report: UK employment data, including unemployment rates and wage growth, may influence investor perceptions of economic strength, which in turn impacts the pound.

‍

• Economic Growth (GDP Data): Any new GDP data for the UK (if available) could show signs of economic resilience or contraction, influencing sentiment toward the pound.

‍

US Economic Data:

• US Retail Sales: Released around this time, a strong retail sales figure could signal strong consumer spending, boosting USD demand.

‍

• US Inflation Data (PCE or CPI): Inflation data in the US will be crucial in shaping expectations of Federal Reserve policy. A higher-than-expected figure may prompt market participants to price in more aggressive tightening, which is supportive for USD strength.

‍

• US Jobless Claims: Weekly jobless claims could provide a glimpse into the health of the US labour market, influencing the outlook for future Fed actions.

‍

2. Central Bank Policies and Statements

• Bank of England (BoE): Any new guidance, especially from BoE members, on the path of monetary policy could be influential. If there are hints of a more dovish stance or a delay in rate hikes, it could weigh on the GBP.

‍

• Federal Reserve (Fed): Statements from Fed officials could provide clues on the pace of interest rate hikes in the US. A more hawkish Fed would likely boost the USD against the GBP.

‍

• Global Risk Sentiment: The Fed’s outlook on global risks (including geopolitical tensions) can influence market appetite for riskier assets, which may indirectly affect GBP/USD.

‍

3. Geopolitical Factors

• Brexit and UK Political Developments: While the UK is no longer part of the EU, any news about trade agreements, political instability, or fiscal policy shifts could affect investor confidence in the pound.

‍

• US Domestic Politics: Any significant developments in US domestic politics, especially those impacting fiscal policy, government shutdown risks, or the debt ceiling, could introduce volatility in USD.

‍

4. Global Market Sentiment and Risk Appetite

• Commodity Prices: Movements in commodity markets (such as oil) could indirectly impact the GBP, given the UK's role as an energy importer/exporter.

‍

• Equity Market Trends: If risk sentiment shifts (e.g., due to volatility in global equity markets), the flow of capital into safe-haven currencies like the USD might weigh on GBP/USD.

‍